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February 11, 2003
Military Aid Is Not The Problem
Amongst the hopelessly naive (Read: Caloweeny), a profoundly false idea has taken root and thrived over the years: the idea that all of the problems in the Middle East would be resolved if the United States would just stop giving military aid to Israel. Well, I've done a bit of research and this is what I've discovered.
Israeli Spending:
Government revenues: $40 billion (FY 2002)
Goverment expenditures: $42.4 billion (FY 2002)
Military Expenditures - cash: $8.87 billion (FY 2001)
Military Expenditures - percent of GDP: 8% (FY 2001)
Military Expenditures - percent of budget: 21% (FY 2001)
Of the $8.87 billion in annual military spending, roughly $1.9 billion comes from the United States. So lets work the numbers. What would happen to Israel if the United States decided to suspend all military aid?
Scenario #1: Israel cuts military spending to make up the difference.
Result: The military budget drops from $8.87 billion to $6.97 billion, a 21% reduction. Israel responds by cutting its planned purchase of 102 new F-16 Fighting Falcons from Lockheed Martin, thus saving $3.5 billion. Lockheed Martin lays off 500 workers. The situation in the Middle East continues as is.
Scenario #2: Israel increases military spending to compensate for the loss.
Result: Israeli government spending rises from $42.4 billion to $44.3 billion, a 4.4% increase. (Coincidentally, about the same increase in federal spending proposed by President Bush.) Military spending as a percentage of Israeli GDP increases by perhaps a point. The situation in the Middle East continues as is.
Scenario #3: The Devil is seen shopping for snow shovels.
Result: Israel, suddenly bereft of American military aid, decides to dissolve itself and Yassar Arafat declares himself the President-for-Life of the new People's Republic of Palestine. (A.K.A. the PRP, pronounced "perp".) The situation in the Middle East changes... the Jews are pushed into the Sea.
I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine the most likely outcome.
Finally, if all that weren't enough, there is also this unfortunate fact: The United States did not begin military aid to Israel until after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. I wasn't alive back then, but it sures seems to me that there was conflict in the Middle East before 1973. In fact, I even seem to remember something about Israel buying jets from the French, when they couldn't get any from the Americans.
Sources: CIA World Fact Book, The Palestine Monitor, The World Policy Institute
Additional: For those that think the that the CIA World Fact Book is just a tool, I offer this... Check out the sources on the apologist Palestinian Monitor website. If it's good enough for the apologists, then it should be good enough for the rest of us, too.
Posted by crandal at February 11, 2003 12:09 AM